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The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth Barry Naughton
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Like most Asian economies, the Chinese government has based its overall growth rate on exports, which is demonstrated in the top chart. China's growing military capabilities now threaten to upset that order in ways that, ironically, could complicate China's security environment at the same time as slowing economic growth intensifies its internal challenges. He feels that the US downgrade may lead to an acceleration of the economic transition in China. As Chinese data continues to deteriorate, housing continues to show weakness and bad debts rise, some take solace in the fact that this is all part of China's plan to rebalance its economy and cool growth. In a paper, Li Zuojun, deputy director at the Development Research Center of the State Council (DRC) writes that after 30 years of rapid growth, China is beginning to restructure. Prior to the Industrial Revolution, craftsmen and farmers When China's market transition started in 1979, Deng Xiaoping adopted a pragmatic, dual-track approach, rather than the “Washington Consensus” formula of rapid privatization and trade liberalization. I think of China's growth model as merely a more muscular version of the Japanese or East Asian growth model, which is itself partly based on the American experience. The medium-term growth projections for China and the United States, 5.5 and. Exports have The transition to a consumption-led economy will be long and bumpy. China's defense Economic growth is slowing; as the World Bank and others have argued, China must undergo an economic transition to a more sustainable development model that will necessarily require political reform. High and sustained GDP growth rates were based on elevated The metamorphosis of the dragon may involve painful growing pains, including the risks of a hard landing that many analysts attribute to the current transition. In my recent book Demystifying the Chinese Economy, I argue that, for any country at any time, the foundation for sustained growth is technological innovation. The Chinese pattern of rapid growth with structural change has been accompanied by rising economic imbalances, just as the main pillars of growth seem to be gradually weakening. Tions in Subramanian (2011) that illustrated likely Chinese economic dominance, were not predicated on surging Chinese growth and collapsing American growth.